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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 23 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model