4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 53

Cleveland Browns 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 23

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to CIN 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 23 for 14 yards (27-M.Dayes).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.99 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model