Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 23 – Cleveland Browns 9

(2:34) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to CLE 32, Center-46-C.Harris. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 47 for 15 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 71, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model