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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 21

Cleveland Browns 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 23

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 5-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.39 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model