4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 3

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 4-R.Bullock 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 3, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP