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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 31

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 4-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.45 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model