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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 93

Cleveland Browns 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to CIN 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 24-A.Jones for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CIN-82-C.Carter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 39. {A.Jones credited with 16 yard return due to the penalty}

The Three Options

GO -3.98 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.98 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 93, worth -5.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model