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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 43

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to PHI 7, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP