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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 36-J.Ajayi left end to CHI 33 for 2 yards (38-A.Amos).

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.90 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model