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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 54

Chicago Bears 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(9:42) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short middle to 18-T.McBride.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.59 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model