Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 90

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(9:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to CHI 44, Center-49-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.05 EP
56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 90, worth -5.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model