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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(2:08) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 13-N.Agholor (39-E.Jackson, 22-C.LeBlanc).

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.10 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model