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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 20

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 2-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model