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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-59-J.Walker. PENALTY on CHI-31-M.Cooper, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CHI 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.69 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model