Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 70

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

(4:49) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to PHI 31, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.26 EP
55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model