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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 27

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.55 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model