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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.66 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model