4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 67

Washington Commanders 31 – New Orleans Saints 23

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to NO 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.62 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP