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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 13 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to WAS 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.38 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP