4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 85

Washington Commanders 17 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(5:40) (Punt formation) 84-N.Paul up the middle to WAS 20 for 5 yards (56-M.Mauti).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.60 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 85, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 43, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model