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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 20

Washington Commanders 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 6-N.Rose 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 20, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model