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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 13 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle to NO 46 for 2 yards (91-R.Kerrigan).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.19 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model