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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 68

Washington Commanders 17 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to NO 23, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.80 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model