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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 38

Washington Commanders 17 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback. WA #38 J.Holsey caught the ball at the goal line, but his heels were ruled on the line and therefore a touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.92 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -2.06 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP