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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 10 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to WAS 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.08 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP