Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 62

Chicago Bears 24 – Detroit Lions 27

(:28) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky scrambles left end to DET 43 for 19 yards (32-T.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.84 EP
74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -1.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.68 EP