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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 75

Chicago Bears 17 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(2:14) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DET 36, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 37. 39-J.Agnew to DET 37 for no gain (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.21 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP