Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 86

Detroit Lions 21 – Chicago Bears 17

(13:29) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to CHI 39, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to 50 for 11 yards (54-S.Longa).

The Three Options

GO -3.36 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.34 EP
72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 86, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model