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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 16

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 9-N.Novak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 16, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model