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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 57

Buffalo Bills 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 40

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor sacked at BUF 35 for -8 yards (99-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (99-J.Bosa) [99-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by LAC-54-M.Ingram at BUF 39. 54-M.Ingram for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.53 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model