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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 40

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.55 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model