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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 10

Los Angeles Chargers 37 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 9-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model