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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 10

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 9-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model