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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 23

What Actually Happened

(:39) 8-J.Vogel punts 43 yards to BAL 23, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.49 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -0.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model