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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 41
Baltimore Ravens 0 – Green Bay Packers 0
What Actually Happened
(9:40) 34-A.Collins right guard to GB 36 for 5 yards (50-B.Martinez).
The Three Options
GO
+1.25 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.42 EP
KICK
-1.10 EP
- 42% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 58% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT
-0.48 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
