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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to GB 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.50 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP