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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to GB 6, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-10-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.55 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model