Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 84

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to GB 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Davis to GB 40 for 9 yards (88-V.Mayle). PENALTY on BAL, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at GB 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.28 EP
55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model