4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 41

Green Bay Packers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(9:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley sacked at BAL 49 for -8 yards (69-W.Henry).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model