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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 73

Green Bay Packers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 8-J.Vogel punts 38 yards to BAL 35, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.76 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 31, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP