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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(12:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Williams up the middle to GB 47 for 2 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.80 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model