Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Houston Texans 0

(6:17) 2-A.Lee punts 49 yards to HOU 11, Center-49-J.Drescher, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.53 EP
72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model