Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 58

Houston Texans 31 – Arizona Cardinals 21

(:20) 9-S.Lechler punts 36 yards to ARI 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-52-B.Peters.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.31 EP
63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -0.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model