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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 65

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 23-A.Peterson left tackle to ARI 34 for -1 yards (41-Z.Cunningham; 90-J.Clowney).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.51 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model