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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 75

Houston Texans 24 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to ARI 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 33-K.Williams to ARI 23 for 2 yards (50-B.Heeney; 41-Z.Cunningham). PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.37 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model