Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to HOU 7, Center-49-J.Drescher. 12-B.Ellington to HOU 10 for 3 yards (30-R.Ford, 86-R.Seals-Jones). PENALTY on HOU-50-B.Heeney, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at HOU 7.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.99 EP
64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model