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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 38

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 2-A.Lee punts 37 yards to HOU 1, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI-36-B.Baker. Houston challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1 at 10:50.)

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.34 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.14 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model