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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to HOU 6, Center-49-J.Drescher. 12-B.Ellington to HOU 21 for 15 yards (36-B.Baker). PENALTY on HOU-35-E.Pleasant, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at HOU 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.81 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model