Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 89

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(9:19) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to SEA 34, Center-49-J.Drescher. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 49 for 15 yards (36-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.38 EP
72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 89, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model