Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 22 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(9:37) 9-J.Ryan punts 56 yards to ARI 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-K.Williams to ARI 19 for 10 yards (58-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model